Investing in a Flat World

“The ideal country in a flat world is the one with no natural resources, because countries with no natural resources tend to dig inside themselves. They try to tap the energy, entrepreneurship, creativity, and intelligence of their own people-men and women-rather than drill an oil well.” - Thomas Friedman

One of my favorite books is The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman.  When it was released 10 years ago it introduced the revolutionary idea that location doesn’t matter much anymore since communications and freight costs continue to go down while their speeds increase. So much for my real estate mantra and model “location, location, location”. This was the start of some radical new world thinking.

Since the economy tanked in 2008 and brought real estate values to all time lows, my firm has been investing in distressed real estate. Under the flat world effect, the rest of the world’s real estate markets followed suit shortly thereafter.  However, many countries in Europe did not take steps to rebound as quickly as the US, which has created many opportunities to buy assets at significant discounts to other countries. As a result, we now evaluate our new business opportunities by comparing current real estate values in the US to those of other continents, not necessarily to historic levels in the local market.

The flat world effect is also leading my investments to Brazil.  Last year my company brought American investors to Brazilian real estate deals.  Now we are focused on bringing money from Brazil to projects in the US, mainly due to a concern that their currency will be affected more by the US Feds’ eventual de-levering.

The manufacturing sector, which has not been a strength of the US for many years, has been more important to my firm recently. There is recent optimism due to very low fuel costs in the US (thanks in part to fracking) and a lower cost of labor due to extended unemployment. This effect has helped create more decent jobs in the US, thereby helping us rent apartments in the midwest and other places in the US other than the metropolitan hubs of NYC and San Francisco.

Some pretty amazing changes have taken place in the world since Friedman originally started the focus over 10 years ago. How has it affected you?

Negotiation Wisdom from Dr. Henry Kissinger

"The task of the leader is to get his people from where they are to where they have not been."  - Dr. Henry Kissinger

Last week I was fortunate to be part of a conversation between Dr. Henry Kissinger and Rabbi Peter Rubinstein. Dr. Kissinger shared his insight and knowledge that he acquired during his long and esteemed career, which is still happening. 

I found Dr. Kissinger's comments on negotiation extremely interesting. Some of my favorite take-aways:

• A great negotiator remembers history ... like the fact that Russia was founded in Kiev, and that Kiev remained Russian for hundreds of years.
• A great negotiator understands the goals of his counterpart. Putin is rebuilding a broken empire with considerable approval from the Russian population.
• Executive conference calls don't work.  Too many people expect their boss to win.
• China thinks of itself as a thousand years old civilization, not a country. 
• Never lose your temper or show that you are under time constraints.
• Understand your opponents' mindset. Know what their end goal is.
• The US tries to solve problems quickly.  China's leadership believes not all problems have solutions, but only lead to more problems. Therefore, China is in no hurry to take action. They just monitor how things develop over a few hundred years.

Keep Moving Forward

One 97 degree day in July a few years ago, I ran a 24 hour relay race with my 85 year old great uncle. He has actually been the inspiration for me and my brother as we have embarked on many crazy endurance events. Once you get to know my uncle, you find out he’s not superhuman or really any different than everyone else. He just doesn't stop when others stop, rest when others rest, drink when others drink, or give up when others do. The difference between success and failure is just making the decision to make your own decision, not follow the crowd. Think about this next time you have a decision point. That is what makes success happen!

"If you can’t fly then run, if you can’t run then walk, if you can’t walk then crawl, but whatever you do you have to keep moving forward." - Martin Luther King, Jr.

The Future of Regional and Community Banking

I thought this was a great overview of why and how community banks are essential to the financial stability and growth of America.     The Future of Regional and Community Banking

Angels in Africa

The next Silicon Valley is Lagos, Nigeria. You would probably never in a million years think the same as you tour (or just pass by) one of the poorest, dirtiest slums in the world.  But a great industry growing out of this seemingly dead-end blight is a creative, ambitious fleet of budding entrepreneurs.  

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” - Robert Arnott

I had the opportunity to visit with some of these trailblazers last year at the annual Techie Entrepreneurial Nigerian Talent (TENT) conference.  Their innovation and determination impressed me so much that I immediately lay down 1 million Nigerian Naira for my favorite top three start-ups...that is, once my call finally went through to my colleague and their mentor, Gbenga Sense, Founder and President of Paradigm Initiative Nigeria.  The industrious young Lagos adults I selected to invest with are developing technologies for medical diagnosis in rural areas, age verification based on voice, and collision avoidance for motor vehicles.  They do their work in between regular power outages, massive daily gridlock, and figuring out how to pay their next smartphone bills.

“Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.” - John Maynard Keynes

In addition to the funding, we meet via Skype a few times a month so they can share ideas and strategies with each other, and get an American businessman’s perspective as well. I am grateful for what I have gained from their “sky-is-the-limit” attitudes and technological ingenuity.  I intend to apply their entrepreneurial spirit to my own business.

The world has great things to gain from the industrialism burgeoning in Lagos. I hope that more Westerners envision the same prosperity and invest with me.

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.” - Peter Drucker

The Race is Won at the Finish Line

TheAmerican job market has changed. One way that Americans are tackling the lack of jobs is by putting a huge amount of energy into start-ups. This can create opportunity for some massive companies like Google and Apple, but can also result in a huge waste of time and energy for many.  One of the funds I invest with was pitched by almost one company per day last month with ideas as diverse as a new sales platform to take-on eBay, a new tequila brand (just what the world needs), and a line of pocketbooks whose differentiating factor is that they come in different colors. Few will succeed; many will not.

Even so, with all of the companies that are started on an annual basis, the ones that don't become billion dollar opportunities still have relevance somewhere.  So much time is wasted by great people working on concepts that just won’t scale into the next Instagram. Many are good ideas but have a limited market opportunity. The startup world seems to have a done great job with promoting the concept of failing fast.  Thank goodness!

As the U.S. economy continues to change into a much more entrepreneurial model, there will be fast failures (great!) and there will be huge success (great!), and now there is a place to help the middle (great!)

Check out Upcelerator.com, and please forward this to friends that are stuck in the middle.

The Gift of Time

We could all use a few more minutes in each day, a few more hours in each week, and a few more days in each month.  I haven’t discovered a way to add time to the calendar, but I have discovered some great apps that open up many hours per month for me by saving time on things I don’t have time for.  

Here are my top 10 time saving apps.  I hope you find some extra time in 2014 to spend with friends and family and doing the things you love best.

1. zirtual.com - For $17/hour you get a virtual assistant on demand. They handle all sorts of research and internet related items.

2. Google Calendar - Easiest way to coordinate meetings and eliminate scheduling misunderstandings. (“Oh, I thought next week meant the week after the coming week.  Did you mean Eastern or Mountain time?”).   

3. square.com/cash  -  Email money to anyone’s debit card… the babysitter, your bookie, your kids. No more stops at the ATM.  

4. refresh.io - Dossier on your meetings 10 minutes before. Wow them with your knowledge (but try not to look like a stalker) without lifting a finger.

5. uber.com - When you need a car to show up on demand, just click on the uber app on your smart phone. The gps will find your exact location and the nearest uber car right away, send the car to you, and charge your credit card, including tip!  All with one click.  

6. Apple TV - Watch whatever you want, whenever you want, with NO commercials.  Saves 30% of TV watching time, and avoids aggravation of the kids asking for every toy and cereal they see in the commercials.

7. taskrabbit.com - If you don’t have time to do it (organize family photos), don’t like to do it (assemble an Ikea item), or don’t know how to do it (set up the new wireless printer), list it on taskrabbit.com. You will have an eager taskrabbit on the job within minutes.  

8. contactually.com - Throw all of your contacts into this app, and it will remind you when you haven’t talked to someone for a bit.  No more combing through old emails or dropping the ball.  

9. opentable.com - What restaurant has a table available for 6 people at 7:00 tomorrow night in the West Village?  See the results in seconds, and make your reservation with just a few clicks. No more holding and spelling your name 3 times.

10. Hire the kid next door to teach you how to use 1 through 9.